More Next Manager Betting
Martin O’Neill’s sacking as Sunderland boss seen another next manager market come up on Betfair, and it disappeared nearly as soon as it had appeared with the immediate appointment of Paolo Di Canio.
Even though I had heard it reported that Di Canio was in Sunderland for talks, I still thought he was worth a lay at odds of 1.17, as I believed there was still plenty that could potentially go wrong.
I seen it as a relatively cheap and minimal risk lay. First, how accurate was the rumour of him being in Sunderland? And even if he was in Sunderland, I still wasn’t convinced they would give him the job.
Added to that, I won a few quid on the recent next Reading manager’s market, so I had a few pounds to invest/lose.
I believed it to be a bonkers decision to sack a manager of Martin O’Neill’s stature and experience at this time of the season, and then give the managers job to a premier league novice, with limited managerial experience full stop.
I thought maybe Sunderland had a more experienced manager in mind, and that they maybe wanted to speak to Di Canio just to sound him out, in case their first choice didn’t materialise.
A couple of hours after placing my lay I noticed on Twitter that Di Canio had been given the job, so I quickly got on to Betfair and managed to back him for the job at 1.07, and get nearly half my money back.
I then watched the price crash to 1.01 in a matter of seconds afterwards.
Even though I lost on this trade, it was a low risk bet that I believe I had plenty more to gain from, than lose. Obviously it’s always disappointing to lose, but I’m not going to dwell on this and wonder if I could have done things differently.
These next manager markets can be dangerous and can be volatile, but if you are careful and bet tactically, you can make money out of them.
As soon as a next manager market comes live, I lay all candidates at odds on as soon as possible and then just leave it. Usually I will get two matched.
Gus Poyet traded odds on for the recent Reading job, what happened there just goes to show how many obstacles there can be in the way before an appointment is finally made. That’s why I didn’t mind laying Di Canio.
This appointment has surprised me though, I know that in the world of football betting nothing should surprise me by now, but even I would never have believed Sunderland would trust Di Canio with keeping them in the Premier League.
It looks like a short term, panic decision to me. Someone at the club appears to have thought ‘let’s try and give the team a boost or a kick up the backside, and hope it has an immediate impact.’
They appear to be banking on the hope that to bring in a new manager now will give them a temporary lift, the new manager bounce effect, and get Sunderland the points they need to make them safe. In short, bring in another year’s TV money.
It may well work, Di Canio might keep them up, but O’Neill might have kept them up as well, we will never know now.