Another YouGov Poll in the Sunday Times yesterday seen a ‘Yes For Independence Vote’ take the lead for the first time since the referendum campaign began, prompting another shift in the bookmakers odds.
The YouGov Poll in question has the ‘Yes’ vote on 51%, a small percentage lead, admitted, but the significance is that it is starting to give the impression that all the momentum is on the side of those looking to bring the Union to an end.
The Polls can fluctuate, and the next one may well show that the ‘No Vote’ is back in the lead, and at the moment the odds suggest this may be the case.
The momentum can’t have totally turned, as the ‘No To Independence’ vote is still odds on, now at a best price of 2/5 with bet365 (who have a £200.00 Welcome Bonus for new accounts), last week it was 2/7.
The ‘Yes To Independence’ vote is now at a best price of 39/19 (just a touch over 2/1) with 888Sport (who have £88.00 in free bets for new customers), having been 11/4 just a few days back.
Onto the betting exchanges, and Betfair is also showing a drift in the betting as the ‘No’ vote is now trading at 1.38, having been 1.26 at the back end of last week.
Every time the results of an opinion poll are released this market goes a bit crazy and offers big price swings. The ‘No’ vote traded up to 1.49 yesterday on the back of this latest poll, before settling back down at 1.38, giving traders the opportunity to make a quick profit.
I have also noticed the that this market is rife for arbers. If the price on Betfair drops below 1.37 to lay, and you can still get 2/5 with bet365 or any other bookie, you can back at bet365 and lay on Betfair for guaranteed profit.