Wednesday evening seen the Daily Record produce the results of a Poll which showed the ‘No’ vote back with a 6% lead in the Scottish Independence Referendum, which sent the betting markets back into free fall.
Yesterday (10th Sept) seen the ‘No’ vote price reach it’s highest odds as prices around the 2/5 mark were seen with a lot of bookies, and 1.48 was matched on the Betfair Betting Exchange.
Current Scottish Independence Betting Best Odds
Then in the evening time, the Daily Record released the results of a Poll which showed the ‘Yes’ vote down at 47% and the ‘No’ vote back up to 53%, and this sent the odds on the ‘No’ vote into free fall with most bookies now pricing it up at prices of 1/4 and lower. On the Betfair betting exchange, the ‘No’ vote is now trading back down at 1.24.
What this immediately tells me is two obvious points. First, this vote is just too close to call, so these opinion polls need to be treated with a degree of caution. And second, trading this market on Betfair off the back of opinion polls looks to be very profitable.
Every time a poll is released the market shoots one way and then the other. For example, the ‘No’ vote traded up at above 1.5 on the back of an opinion poll recently, before settling back down at around 1.44.
Then when the Daily Record poll was released yesterday the price crashed even further down to the current 1.24, just highlighting how much money could be made if you have your finger on the button the minute these polls are made public.