Despite the polls suggesting that the outcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum is too close to call, Betfair seem so certain that it will be a ‘No’ vote, that they have decided to pay out already.
This is just on their Sportsbook, and has absolutely no effect on the Betting Exchange, where bets will be settled in the usual manner on the final result.
It would appear that Betfair have taken this decision based on betting data as opposed to opinion poll data, as despite the opinion polls all showing a close contest, the odds all suggest a win for the ‘No’ vote.
At the moment the Betfair Sportsbook has ‘No’ at 1/5, and ‘Yes’ at 7/2, which in a two horse race, isn’t the sort of odds that suggest a foregone conclusion.
Barcelona are 1/14 in tonight’s Champions League tie against Apoel, that’s the sort of odds you get on a foregone conclusion, which makes the decision to payout on the ‘No’ vote look more like a PR stunt than just being Betfair getting on with what is obvious.
The Betfair Betting Exchange currently has the ‘No’ vote trading at 1.23 to back, and 1.24 to lay. While the ‘Yes’ vote is trading at 5.1 to back, and 5.2 to lay.