Interesting to see that Gus Poyet is now the odds on favourite to be the next Reading boss after the ridiculous (in my opinion) sacking of Brian McDermott.
I know that these markets are generally driven by rumours. Rumours sometime that are false, and rumours that are driven by insider information. The trick is trying to work out which is which.
I haven’t a clue if this Poyet rumour is false or not, but looking at it in the cold light of day I wouldn’t be touching this bet at odds on with a barge poll.
Here are some reasons why. Reading are likely to go down, Brighton have a slim chance of coming up, and the Chelsea managers job will be going in the summer.
The positive to jumping ship to Reading is he would be working with a club equipped for the Premier League. If/when Reading go down, he would probably expect to come back up with them next season.
And if Brighton don’t get promoted this season. Who would represent the best chance of gaining promotion next season? Poyet would probably think Reading.
The negative is that there is a slim chance Reading and Brighton could swap leagues over the next few months.
Onto the Chelsea, job and while I don’t see Poyet getting it, he must harbour hopes of landing it.
Would joining Reading now virtually rule him out of the Chelsea job running? Or would Poyet see it as an opportunity to do a good job at Reading for 3 months, possibly perform a miracle and keep them up, and in doing so he would impress Abramovich enough to maybe get the big job?
I can see reasons for Poyet staying at Brighton, and I can see reasons for him moving to Reading.
If this gamble on him is based on speculation and not insider knowledge, it could be a very risky bet. For me there is enough doubt in there to steer well clear of it.